In any case, as long as earthquakes remain deadly and destructive, we will dream of being able to foresee the next “big one” coming before it strikes.

Kaiser Permanente Building destroyed in the Northridge Earthquake in 1994

Can earthquakes be predicted?

Many seismologists would probably answer, “Not yet, but eventually.” But to date, nobody has been able to predict earthquakes reliably enough and over short enough time scales to allow the evacuation of threatened cities. Some scientists have entirely lost faith in earthquake prediction. They say that so many factors decide whether a fault will rupture that earthquakes could well be inherently unpredictable in a practical sense.

Not Yet

In 1976, Chinese earthquake prediction suffered a major blow when the Tangshan earthquake in northern China struck unpredicted and killed at least 240,000 people. (Earthquakes undoubtedly do have precursor signs, but they tend to be clearer in hindsight, and it is difficult to sort out signs that may be meaningful from ones that prove not to be.) (Source: pbs.org)

***

CONTROVERSY

In the effort to predict earthquakes, people have tried to associate an impending earthquake with such varied phenomenon as seismicity patterns, electromagnetic fields, weather conditions and unusual clouds, radon or hydrogen gas content of soil or ground water, water level in wells, animal behavior.

Thus far, earthquake prediction is controversial because data are sparse and there is little evidence or verified physical theory to link observable phenomena to subsequent seismicity. The frequent practice of polishing predictions after the fact further complicates matters. Also, given enough predictions, it is virtually inevitable that some will succeed “by chance.” Assessing whether a successful prediction is a fluke is challenging. Most assessments rely on chance models for earthquake occurrence, models that are difficult to test or validate, because large earthquakes are so rare, and because earthquake activity is naturally clustered in space and time. (Source: Wikipedia)

***

LARGEST EARTHQUAKES IN THE WORLD SINCE 1900

(Source: usgs.gov)

***

WHEN THE EARTH MOVES

The Sumatra Earthquake

AND THE AFTERMATH

***

PREDICTIONS

Scientists: Big Quake Likely in Calif.

California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast. New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

“It basically guarantees it’s going to happen,” said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area. (Excerpts from The Daily Journal)

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ONLINE?

On average an earthquake of +6.0M occurs about every three days. During the 8-day February Window there were six quakes of 6.0-6.9M and two of 7.0-7.4M. That kind of activity should alert anyone to the shaking potential of a Seismic Window. To pin down the place, aware people should be alert to any local anomalies in animals, noises, lights, wells and springs and possible foreshocks.

Here is the list of significant quakes during the February Window: Feb. 189(Sumatra, 6.0M); Feb. 20 (So. Greece, 6.2M; Indonesia, 7.5M); Feb. 21 (Svalbard, 6.2M; Wells, NV, 6.0-6.3M); Feb. 23 (S. Sandwich Is., 6.4M); Feb. 24 (Indonesia, 6.6M); Feb. 25 (Padang, Sumatra, 7.0M); In addition another strong quake of 6.4M hit the Bonin Islands on the day after the Window closed.

Furthermore, the month of February contained a total of at least twenty quakes that exceeded 6.0M during a month containing eclipses of both the Sun and Moon.

Here is my scorecard for my February 18-25, 2008 predictions, where I hit 100% for three of my four main predictions, as well as 100% for my MOSS prediction for a 6+ in Mexico. (Excerpts from syzygyjob.com)

***

CAN BE PREVENTED?

“Before geologists could create a controlled quake, they would need precise data about the shape of the underground fault, and how much friction and pressures has built up along it. Getting that kind of data is an imaging problem that is unlikely to be solved anytime soon” !

Since the beginning of time, man has stood helpless against the destructive force of earthquakes, which cause loss of lives and damage to property. No more!

TerraMoto has developed a new patented technology which precisely charts the subterranean pressure distribution along the fault lines . This technology allows to predict the magnitude of an earthquake and its risk level. Preventing the earthquake can be established by controllably and gradually releasing pressures by a series of small explosions at the high pressure points.

The technological development is supported by the best scientists in the field from both the Tel-Aviv University and the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

The company is in the process of raising capital in order to build a demonstrator and place it in the Syrian-African fault line, north of the dead sea. (Source: terramoto.co.il)

***
THE BIG ONE?

From the Bible:

There were flashes of lightning, roars of thunder, and the worst earthquake in all history.
- Revelation 16:18 (Contemporary English Version)

Popularity: 56% [?]

You Should Also Check Out This Post:

• In remembrance of my mother
• China quake toll 'to top 50,000'
• Red Cross says death toll in Myanmar cyclone may be as high as 127,990
• Toll from China quake estimated at 3,000 to 5,000
• Fears rise cyclone death toll could soar

More Active Posts:

• Disney, a Satanic Empire? (3)
• Dec. 21, 2012: End of the World? (3)
• When Porn rules the world (2)
• Identity theft still going strong in the U.S. (2)
• $7,901 for a circumcision? (2)
• Video Game addiction and violence in real life (1)
• Fear of Internet (1)
• Fear of Dan Brown's novel (1)